The business aviation market could see as many as 8,500 new jet deliveries worth $274 billion over the next decade, according to the just-released results from Honeywell Aerospace’s 31st annual Global Business Aviation Outlook. It also calls for 700 business jet deliveries this year, and a 17 percent increase next year, along with a 20 percent boost over 2022 billings.

Based on the results of this year’s survey and airframer backlogs, that trend will continue through the next decade. “I would say the most surprising thing was the 15 percent jump in the 10-year forecast, not just in terms of units, but also in terms of expenditures,” said Javier Jimenez Serrano, strategy and market research manager at Honeywell Aerospace (Booths 2400B and 4100).

New jet deliveries and expenditures are projected to grow at a 2 percent annual average rate, keeping pace with worldwide economic growth. The forecast extrapolates direct results from the annual survey of operators chosen from the global pool based on market segment, geographic area, and type of aircraft used for the first half of the 10-year forecast window, and then distills econometric data for the remaining five years.

Operator five-year purchase plans are up by three percentage points compared with last year’s survey results, reaching pre-Covid 2019 levels and equaling a 17 percent replacement of the current fleet. “Demand for new business jets is as high as we’ve seen since 2015, and we expect high levels of demand and expenditures for new aircraft for several more years,” said Heath Patrick, president of Honeywell Aerospace’s Americas aftermarket division.

Based on the results of the survey, operators are expressing strong optimism in 2022, with an overwhelming 96 percent believing they will fly as much or more next year. “The business aviation industry is greatly benefitting from a wave of first-time users and buyers due in part to changing habits brought on by the Covid-19 pandemic,” explained Patrick. “The business aviation sector is expected to recover to 2019 delivery and expenditure levels by 2023, which is much sooner than previously expected.”

Those first-time users helped buoy the industry at times this year to flight utilization rates not seen since 2007, the high water mark for business aviation. In response to industry concerns about whether those new customers will remain, 74 percent of new users surveyed said they expect to keep the same level of flying in 2023 as they did in 2022.

Over the next five years, Honeywell expects the large and long-range jet categories will account for 70 percent of all new jet expenditures and will total 38 percent of all unit purchases, compared with 26 percent for the medium cabin and 36 percent for the light jet categories.

“That is driven by the clean sheet new offerings entering service there: the [Gulfstream] G700 and G800, [Dassault] Falcon 10x, and the recently announced [Bombardier] Global 8000,” Serrano told AIN. “We also see growth in the large-cabin category that is currently where the Challenger 650 and Falcon 2000 are. It’s an area that has been neglected frankly, those designs are from the 1990s. We saw that area of the market starting to grow with the G400, but we expect that there will be more clean sheet refreshes in that area, and the market will support them.”

Among its survey questions, Honeywell also queried respondents about their sustainability efforts, with half indicating they are implementing at least one method to reduce their carbon footprint, a rate 30 percent higher than last year. Among the methods cited, the use of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) ranked third behind “fewer or slower private jet trips,” and “increasing passenger capacity,” with many operators noting challenges in SAF availability. Yet, 37 percent of respondents say they believe SAF will be the most common way for them to operate in a more environmentally friendly manner in the future.

Based on the results of this year’s survey, more than 60 percent of operators plan to either adopt or increase their sustainability efforts.


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